Joey Magidson
For months now, two things have been consistent. One has been that pundits, including myself, have spoken about how wide open the Oscar race for Best Picture has been. The other is that, ever since the movie premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and won the Palme d’Or, I’ve been predicting Anora to win Best Picture. I moved off of Sean Baker winning Best Director recently (more on that in a moment), but I’ve had the film winning Picture at the Academy Awards for much of 2024 and all of 2025. To some, it seemed like I was being stubborn. Well, after this weekend, it feels more like I was just early. I don’t say that to brag, just to point out that very little actually happened to give any other flick too much of a leg up. Now, we’re one more big precursor win away from the race being wrapped up. Go figure.
Anora obviously took the top prize at Cannes, earning Baker the best reviews of his career. I initially moved the film into the Oscar pole position due to it being the only title with a win on the board. Then, during Phase One of awards season, it scored as many or more critics group win than any other movie. So, there was no reason to doubt it. Precursor season was very kind to Anora, leading to it scoring pretty much exactly the amount of Oscar nominations it was always expected to receive, especially once Yura Borisov became a factor in Best Supporting Actor. Best Picture, Best Director for Baker, Best Actress for Mikey Madison, Best Original Screenplay for Baker, and Best Film Editing for Baker resulted in a half dozen citations. However, it seemed like other pundits had more stock in newer titles like The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, or even Wicked, though fellow Cannes alum Emilia Pérez was right there as well, at least until…recent events. It seemed like the Golden Globe results, where The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez got big wins, while Madison lost to Demi Moore, made it seem like Anora going home empty-handed was a harbinger of things to come. Well, at least until this weekend.
Friday night, the 30th Critics Choice Awards were held, with most of the night suggesting that Anora was going to get shut out. Baker lost in Best Editing to Challengers, Best Original Screenplay to Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, and Best Director to Jon M. Chu for Wicked. Borisov expectedly fell to Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain in Best Supporting Actor, while Madison came up short to Moore for The Substance in Best Actress. Then, Best Picture was announced. Lo and behold, Anora won. Now, CCA has no Academy crossover, but it was a sign of things to come.
Saturday night was the big one. The Directors Guild Awards and the Producers Guild Awards were given out, back to back. DGA was widely expected to go to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist, especially after he took Best Director at the Globes. PGA on the other hand, was wide open, though largely not expected to go to Anora. First, DGA announced and Baker unexpectedly triumphed. That shock reverberated through the industry, with many folks immediately wondering if the film was about to surprise with the producers next. Well, the movie sure did, being announced less than an hour later as the PGA victor. Suddenly, Anora is in a very enviable position.
Now, Anora is the favorite in Picture, Baker has an excellent chance in Director, while Original Screenplay and Film Editing are very much in play for the filmmaker as well. If the movie manages to win the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, it’ll be all over. The film is hardly assured of that, but at this point? Bet against it at your own risk. I’ll be writing more about this with updated predictions at the end of the week, but the tide sure has turned…
Stay tuned to see if Anora can hold on and win Best Picture at the Academy Awards next month!
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