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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Academy Has Begun Now That The Guilds Have Chimed In

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What a week it has been, especially in terms of the precursor season. Sure, there have been precursors that I’ve warned you not to put much stock into, but the major Guilds have chimed in, really giving us a look at what Oscar could end up doing. Moreover, voting for the Academy Awards began yesterday, so kids…we’re in it. Obviously, an update to my predictions was necessary, so you can see those today, along with some thoughts on where we stand, mainly centered on where your attention should be.

The main takeaway from the past handful of days is that lots is still in flux. The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and The Fabelmans have performed well, while every Oscar category has at least one spot, if not two, that are very much up in the air. It’s arguably one of the most exciting races in some time, as aside from Best Supporting Actor, alongside one or two of the technical categories, we don’t know for sure who’s winning those Oscars. Up and down the line, we have races, which is wonderful.

Again (as said here), ignore the Golden Globes from Tuesday, just like the Critics Choice Awards won’t be influencing voters on Sunday. The Guilds are where it’s at, plain and simple. The closer you look at those, the more information you’ll have. So, while the Globes and CCA are fun, the actual facts come from the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, and the Screen Actors Guild.

DGA was probably the most surprising of the Guilds, citing four of the top contenders in Best Director, but also including Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick. While it seems a bit unlikely that we’ll get the DGA five at Oscar, it’s not impossible. It did, however, reduce the likely contenders in Director by a fair amount, barring a major surprise.

PGA was most notable for including four sequels and also including The Whale. As I tweeted, I think the film is in for Best Picture, with a more vulnerable PGA nominee at Oscar being Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. If nothing else, it really helped narrow down the true Picture contenders to about a baker’s dozen or so.

SAG continued to boost the Oscar chances for the big three of The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and The Fabelmans, as well as really giving a shot in the arm to the candidacy of Blonde‘s Ana de Armas, alongside Hustle‘s Adam Sandler. Currently, I have both getting cited by the Academy as well, though keep in mind that Netflix can occasionally over-perform with SAG.

Prior predictions for the Academy Awards can be found right here, showcasing my thought process throughout the season. As a reminder, fresh predictions for DGA, PGA, and SAG are here, here, and here. Give those a look, for sure. Without question, the Oscars will be influenced by those Guilds, so ignore them at your own peril, not that you would.

Folks, as always you can see my latest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming fast and furious these days, and will continue to come, more and more, now that voting is literally going on. So, sit tight for plenty more in 2023…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the awards season continues!

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Robert Hamer
24 days ago

One thing I’m liking about the way the awards races are shaping up right now: if current trends continue, and Best Lead Actress narrows between Blanchett/Yeoh, Best Lead Actor boils down to Farrell/Fraser, Best Supporting Actress is an “anyone’s game” competition between Bassett/Chau/Condon/Curtis/Hsu, and Best Supporting Actor is Ke Huy Quan’s to lose, that will be the first time in six years when all four of the acting winners are for playing completely fictional characters.

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