Steven Prusakowski
Go big or go home is not always the best way to approach predictions. So, I decided to ignore reason and take that approach. Buckle in for some wild predictions – predictions I stand by.
I am ready for this year’s Emmys and when I say ready I mean completely unready. My early season predictions still remain relevant, but somewhere along things got tricky. While a few of my favorite series and performances make the omissions list, others had impressive showings. For many the reality is that the nomination will have to be the reward. Early in the season it seemed like you could chalk up several wins for some of the big players of year’s past like Ted Lasso and Succession, but it’s not all elementary… well, actually it kind of is.
One of the Comedy series to stir up the race is Abbott Elementary which has really gained steam, not only winning several awards leading up to the Emmys it has already taken home an Emmy for Comedy Casting. That added fuel to the series already jettisoning up the prediction ranking across all nominated categories.
Then there’s the drama in the Drama categories, brought in part by your friend Saul, Better Call Saul. The series, while not taking home the Emmy gold, has been consistently nominated across all six seasons, plus it just wrapped with a much praised final season. If voters use this year to honor it instead of waiting until next year’s ceremony Saul may be called several times during the broadcast. Also factoring into this equation, the very powerful final episodes aired during phase two voting – recency bias combined with the sheer quality of the final season may stick with voters, even if they are not technically voting on the second half. If they are going to honor the series, this seems like the time. I told you things are a bit tricky.
The Limited Series categories are less complex. I am expecting a big night from The White Lotus, its performance in the Creative Emmy categories bodes well. Still, Dopesick is powerful television and these are serious times – don’t be surprised if it pulls a surprise win or two.
COMEDY SERIES
- “Abbott Elementary”
- “Barry”
- “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
- “Hacks”
- “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
- “Only Murders in the Building”
- “Ted Lasso”
- “What We Do in the Shadows”
This looked like a Ted Lasso repeat early on and it may just be. The slate of Outstanding Comedy Series nominees is one of the best in recent memory. While Lasso had a wonderful season, there are so many different flavors to choose from. Do voters return to last year’s winner Ted Lasso, welcome the return of a killer friendly face in Barry, knock on the door of the delightfully clever Only Murders In the Building or go back to school with the Abbott Elementary? Abbott seems to have found the momentum at the right time. I am choosing it to win, but would not be surprised if I am wrong (which will probably be a trend starting here.)
Will Win: “Abbott Elementary”
Watch out for: “Only Murders In The Building” and “Ted Lasso” (and “Barry”… and “Hacks”)
COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS
- Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
- Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
- Kaley Cuoco, “The Flight Attendant”
- Elle Fanning, “The Great”
- Issa Rae, “Insecure”
- Jean Smart, “Hacks”
From day one of Emmy season I had Jean Smart winning this trophy. Over the last few weeks I have convinced myself, while Smart’s performance is my favorite in the category, Brunson’s work as lead actress, producer, writer and more along with the general Abbott love have me thinking she is this year’s winner.
Will Win: Quinta Brunson
Watch out for: Jean Smart
COMEDY LEAD ACTOR
- Donald Glover, “Atlanta”
- Bill Hader, “Barry”
- Nicholas Hoult, “The Great”
- Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
- Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
- Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Again, months back this seemed like an easy repeat, this time for Jason Sudeikis – and it may well be. But, in a year of comedy brilliance nothing is that easy. If the voters could hand out multiple trophies, this would be the category they would do so in. Hader’s work on Barry is just so unique in this category. I am expecting Hader takes home another Emmy, that is, if Martin and Short split votes.
Will Win: Bill Hader
Watch out for: Steve Martin or Martin Short or Sudeikis
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
- Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
- Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
- Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
- Sarah Niles, “Ted Lasso”
- Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
- Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso”
- Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
Janelle James may be the funniest part of a series that I am expecting to have a good outing. If this is a no-repeat year in acting categories (which is what I am predicting), then James seems the likely benefactor. Don’t worry if you are rooting for Hannah Einbinder or Hannah Waddingham, I have been juggling my prediction between all three for the last 72 hours.
Will Win: Janelle James
Watch out for: The Hannahs – Hannah Waddingham or Hannah Einbinder
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Anthony Carrigan, “Barry”
- Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
- Toheeb Jimoh, “Ted Lasso”
- Nick Mohammed, “Ted Lasso”
- Tony Shalhoub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
- Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
- Henry Winkler, “Barry”
- Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
What Henry Winkler did this season on Barry was simply incredible. He keeps proving that the idea that he did not have it in him was wrong all along. He’s funny, heart breaking, scary even – which is why I am making yet another last minute switch in predictions. Goldstein is brilliant as Roy Kent, but Winkler had so much range to work with this season and made the most out of it. My biggest concern with the prediction is the equally impressive Anthony Carrigan, as NoHo Hank, splitting his votes.
Will Win: Henry Winkler
Watch out for: Brett Goldstein and Anthony Carrigan
COMEDY SERIES DIRECTING
Will Win: “Barry”
Watch out for: “Only Murders In the Building”
COMEDY SERIES WRITING
Will Win: “Abbott Elementary”
Watch out for: “Only Murders In the Building”
DRAMA SERIES
- “Better Call Saul”
- “Euphoria”
- “Ozark”
- “Severance”
- “Squid Game”
- “Stranger Things”
- “Succession”
- “Yellowjackets”
While I would love to see several of these series be honored, only one can win and I expect Succession to take the Emmy home. It was a stellar season on a show that only seems to get better, plus it scored the coveted Casting Emmy. Speaking of better, Better Call Saul’s timing with an all-timer of a final season keeps the door open, especially with the timing and since the beloved show is 0 for 46 – that needs to be corrected. Will Saul voters come out to make it happen this year? Squid Game, Severance (which also hit at an ideal time), and Yellowjackets are all on my mind too, but will probably have to battle it out next year.
Will Win: “Succession”
Watch out for: “Better Call Saul”
DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS
- Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”
- Laura Linney, “Ozark”
- Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
- Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
- Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show”
- Zendaya, “Euphoria”
Flip a coin, do voters send Zendaya back to the podium for some jaw-dropping work in season 2 of Euphoria or send first-time nominee Melanie Lynskey, a much loved and respected veteran actress who delivered a magnificent season of work extending her impressive several decades long career as Shauna on Yellowjackets? Love them both. (flip… can’t look.) Either way, I am going with Lynskey – her work her should be recognized and Zendaya already took home the honor.
Will Win: Melanie Lynskey
Watch out for: Zendaya
DRAMA LEAD ACTOR
- Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
- Brian Cox, “Succession”
- Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game”
- Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
- Adam Scott, “Severance”
- Jeremy Strong, “Succession”
Strong and Cox delivered again, but the Succession actors will split some votes, Lee Jung-jae was the core of Squid Game but has another season coming. I decided on another last minute swap out. Hopefully I am not outthinking myself, but if I had a ballot I would need to make sure Saul did not leave empty-handed. Odenkirk has surprised us since season one and has only improved since. I think this will be the night to honor Better Call Saul (even if voters are only supposed to consider part 1 of the final season.
Will Win: Bob Odenkirk
Watch out for: Lee Jung-jae
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
- Julia Garner, “Ozark”
- Jung Ho-yeon, “Squid Game”
- Christina Ricci, “Yellowjackets”
- Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”
- J. Smith-Cameron, “Succession”
- Sarah Snook, “Succession”
- Sydney Sweeney, “Euphoria”
Again, so many great performances here including Sweeney’s breakout work, but seeing that my initial frontrunner, Julia Garner, has already won I am going all-in on the this-is-the-time-to-honor-Saul bet. She was snubbed and snubbed and snubbed again, tonight she walks home a winner. Rhea Seehorn deserves an Emmy for her nuanced, complex, conniving (yet sympathetic) portrayal of Kim Wexler.
Will Win: Rhea Seehorn
Watch out for: Julia Garner
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Nicholas Braun, “Succession”
- Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
- Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
- Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
- Oh Young-soo, “Squid Game”
- Park Hae-soo, “Squid Game”
- John Turturro, “Severance”
- Christopher Walken, “Severance”
Matthew Macfadyen and Kieran Culkin have been the unsung heroes of the Succession cast. I expect one of the two to take home the Emmy. My preference (this season) is Macfadyen whose three season character arc has been surprisingly deep, so I am chalking him in for the win. It is the meatiest role in the category edging out Culkin and Young-Soo.
Will Win: Matthew Macfadyen
Watch out for: Kieran Culkin
DRAMA SERIES DIRECTING
Will Win: “Severance”
Watch out for: “Squid Game”
DRAMA SERIES WRITING
Will Win: “Succession”
Watch out for: “Severance”
LIMITED SERIES
- “Dopesick”
- “The Dropout”
- “Inventing Anna”
- “Pam & Tommy”
- “The White Lotus”
The White Lotus has the nominations and the Casting Emmy – that’s big. Plus viewers and critics liked it. Dopesick is powerful, timely and well-executed in so many ways – though not light and as easy to consume as Lotus. Ths to makes it hard to not pick Lotus, so I will stick to my guns here – after flipping on so many other categories. The White Lotus.
Will Win: “The White Lotus”
Watch out for: “Dopesick”
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE ACTRESS
- Toni Collette, “The Staircase”
- Julia Garner, “Inventing Anna”
- Lily James, “Pam & Tommy”
- Sarah Paulson, “Impeachment”
- Margaret Qualley, “Maid”
- Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout”
The lack of The Staircase and Gaslit love in the Limited Series categories still has me dumbfounded. With its lack of nominations I think this race is down to two women – Seyfried who embodied the Theranos mastermind and James who surprised us all with a multifaceted performances that humanized and helped us empathize with a ‘character’ who is often in the media reduced to a pinup. Seyfried is my pick.
Will Win: Amanda Seyfried
Watch out for: Lily James
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE ACTOR
- Colin Firth, “The Staircase”
- Andrew Garfield, “Under the Banner of Heaven”
- Oscar Isaac, “Scenes From a Marriage”
- Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”
- Himesh Patel, “Station Eleven”
- Sebastian Stan, “Pam & Tommy”
Again, if The Staircase had a better showing I would consider this a two man race, but assuming the lack of nominations will hurt it and the fact that Keaton also performed some career best work, my money is on Keaton.
Will Win: Michael Keaton
Watch out for: Colin Firth
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Connie Britton, “The White Lotus”
- Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
- Alexandra Daddario, “The White Lotus”
- Kaitlyn Dever, “Dopesick”
- Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
- Sydney Sweeney, “The White Lotus”
- Mare Winningham, “Dopesick”
Awards history and buzz are all leaning Coolidge, but the math is not. Dever’s work is top-notch and will surely keep her in the hunt for Emmy, plus with The White Lotus votes theoretically being split five ways… I still go with Coolidge. I flipped, flopped and swapped elsewhere – I have a bad feeling this non-FF&S will come back to hurt me… but I will okay as long as I stay off the Oxy.
Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge
Watch out for: Kaitlyn Dever
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Murray Bartlett, “The White Lotus”
- Jake Lacy, “The White Lotus”
- Will Poulter, “Dopesick”
- Seth Rogen, “Pam & Tommy”
- Peter Sarsgaard, “Dopesick”
- Michael Stuhlbarg, “Dopesick”
- Steve Zahn, “The White Lotus”
It is a tough field full of spectacular work. All signs are pointing to Bartlett. But, if the math factors in, Seth Rogen’s performance opened a lot of minds to how much he has to offer as an actor. Is it enough to sneak in an Emmy win? Unlikely but stranger things have happened.
Will Win: Murray Bartlett
Watch out for: Seth Rogen
LIMITED SERIES DIRECTING
Will Win: “Dopesick”
Watch out for: “The White Lotus”
LIMITED SERIES WRITING
Will Win: “The White Lotus”
Watch out for: “Dopesick”
There you have it my predictions across the Comedy, Drama and Limited categories. You can find all category prediction rankings here.
I must admit, I know I took some big swings this year. But, once the narrative is written it is tough to forget it. I am not here to play the odds, taking the safe bet to middling results. If my predictions come true what we will have is a historic Emmy night. I will need some luck on my side. Then again, every year, no matter the history of the event, is a fresh slate. I factor in the numbers, the history, the buzz and try to read the tea leaves as best as I can. No matter what, there will be a lot to discuss with the team on our Emmy Results podcast. There is a plethora of deserving nominees battling it out – it will be tough to be too disappointed no matter who takes home the trophies. Good luck to all nominees.
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Don’t touch that dial there’s plenty of Awards Radar TV coverage to come.
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