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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: More Precursors Are About to Chime In With Uncertainty Reigning Supreme

Normally, I like to update my predictions for a Friday. However, a few things kept that from happening this week. One was just life-related, as I was flying out to California from New York for the Critics Choice Awards, which happens to fall on my birthday. So, while Sunday will be happy birthday to me, it also means time was a bit precious. Plus, this weekend is a huge one for Oscar season, with precursors galore set to announce. No one precursor can impact the Academy Awards too much, but combined, they do largely tell the impending story of the Oscars. So, a day late, I’ve got my newest set of predictions to share with you, on a weekend set to be a huge factor in the race.

Tomorrow is a big day. Both BAFTA and Critics Choice are holding their ceremonies. Neither is the be all, end all of precursors, but both have their merits. Plus, full disclosure…I’m a voting member of CCA and as mentioned above, will be at the show, so I’m certainly curious what happens. At the end of Sunday night, we won’t have all of the Oscar information at hand, but we’ll certainly have more, which will necessitate updated Academy Award predictions, of course.

BAFTA has seen its influence decrease recently with their new form of nominating. That being said, it’s perhaps the last stand for Belfast in its hopes to unseat The Power of the Dog, Best Picture wise. Belfast could continue to tread water by taking home Best British Film instead, and that’s probably the likely outcome. However, an upset would be a big deal, even if the BAFTA voter and the Oscar voter don’t seem to think the same way anymore.

Critics Choice, on the other hand, has a tendency to try and be predictive. So, if Belfast or CODA beat The Power of the Dog, it’s CCA membership guessing which film they think is in the driver’s seat. It favors The Power of the Dog, but anything is possible and the vote likely will be close. Watch out for Best Actress, too, as I’ve mentioned before. Whether it’s Jessica Chastain, Kristen Stewart, or someone else, the Actress victor could be crowned on this night.

DGA is tonight, which basically is a coronation for Jane Campion. There’s not a ton of suspense there, as barring a massive upset, it’s going to be a major win in the corner of The Power of the Dog. The Directors Guild isn’t the Producers Guild, but this is one that Netflix has been eyeing for Campion’s drama for months. In a few hours, they’ll almost assuredly have it…

After this weekend, we’ll have a clearer picture of the Oscar race, but PGA is the one that still looms large. Once that one goes down, Best Picture will clarify a bit more. Stay tuned for that, but in the meantime, the next 24 to 48 hours or so will really tell us a lot. Enjoy all of the precursor chaos, my friends…

As always, you can see my various predictions here for the awards races still to be decided. In addition to the Academy Awards (here), you can find DGA (here), PGA (here), and WGA (here). Take a gander and we’ll see how they all turn out in the coming days As I’ve been saying, we’re in the endgame now, to be sure. Feel free to chime in with your own picks as well!

Once again, my just updated Oscar predictions are right here. Look for another update in the next week or so, though astute readers will notice that certain categories get tweaked in between. Sit tight for the rest of the excitement, since this roller coaster still has some bumps along the way to share with us all…

Stay tuned for another update to my predictions very soon!

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Richard Green
Richard Green
6 months ago

Happy Birthday Joey.. Awards Radar is excellent, keep up the good work👍

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Written by Joey Magidson

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