Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: A First Crack at Post Nomination Predix

Well, wasn’t that interesting? After previewing the Oscar nominations last week (here), we saw on Tuesday morning where I was right and where I was wrong. As always, there was plenty of both. I actually got 90 of my picks correct, which is ever so slightly worse than last year, but I think a lot of folks did the same, or worse, so I’m fine. Plus, I’m the boss here, so I’m not firing myself. Anyway, now that we know what the Academy liked, didn’t like, and loved, we can move on to Phase Two of the Oscar season. Now, with the Academy Award nominations in hand, we begin to think about who and what are about to become winners!

Tuesday solidified that the voters love The Power of the Dog, perhaps more than we thought, while they seem to have liked Belfast and Dune just a bit less than expected. That, and the Academy still responded to Kristen Stewart in Spencer, while snubbing Lady Gaga and House of Gucci, gave us some idea of what Oscar is in the mood for. It’s just a piece of the puzzle, but at the very least, it’s a starting point.

So, where does the race stand? Well, The Power of the Dog is our full on frontrunner. Not only did it get all of the expected nominations, it pulled in an extra one with the dual Best Supporting Actor citations. Now, it’ll just be a matter of seeing if Jane Campion‘s film wins with the majority of the guilds/precursors. BAFTA, DGA, and PGA seem very attainable, and that combination will wrap things up. That’s not great news for Belfast, but it remains in play, as do longer shots now like CODA and Don’t Look Up. That being said, it’s clearly The Power of the Dog‘s to lose. Tuesday made that crystal clear, without question.

There will be plenty of moving in some categories, though none seem more wide open than Best Actress. As you all know, Stewart hung on for a nomination, likely at the expense of Gaga, who in term allowed Penelope Cruz to get into the Actress lineup. Either could win, but neither feel like safe predictions. At the same time, presumed frontrunners Olivia Colman and especially Nicole Kidman have notable snubs. Then, there’s Jessica Chastain, likely happy just to be nominated, but also hanging in there. With none of the nominees also in a film up for Best Picture, they won’t have the movies to support them. So, literally any of the ladies can win this prize. It’s once again going to be the tightest race on Oscar night.

Okay, time to get down to brass tacks. Here now are my up to date post nomination Oscar predictions. Can you believe we’re already done with Phase One of the Oscar season? Feel free to chime in with your own picks for Phase Two, but other than that, just get set for the rest of awards season. It’s going to be even more exciting than we thought…

Stay tuned for another update after very soon!