Golden Globes: Is ‘Schitt’s Creek’ a Done Deal, or Can New Shows Prevail?

The beloved sitcom Schitt’s Creek made history at the socially-distant Emmys this past fall for a variety of reasons. Among them was that it won all four acting prizes (the first for a comedy), a feat it’s poised to repeat at the Golden Globes. Even though it’s up in every possible category it could be, this is the first time that the Canadian crew has contended for any Globes, which invites the question – can it actually manage to win them all here too?

There are a few factors to consider when analyzing its chances. The first is to look at the last decade of the top category, Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy. Six out of ten times, a freshman series prevailed. Back in 2010, Glee was a rare repeat winner for its second season, and Modern Family finally ousted it in 2011 in its third season after two unsuccessful bids (and two Emmy wins for Best Comedy Series). The other two exceptions may be most informative: series that weren’t nominated before and won on their first try. Mozart in the Jungle scored for its second season in 2015, while Fleabag was last year’s winner for its second and final season. While that’s hardly the kind of late-breaking endorsement that a show in its sixth iteration would require, it’s fair to say that audiences do seem to adore Schitt’s Creek, and it could follow in the footsteps of another long-ignored fan favorite, The Americans, that got in only for its sixth and final season and ended up winning Best TV Series – Drama.

For comparative statistics, it’s worth noting that most shows don’t have performers eligible in each of the four acting races. There is a series that does come to mind right away which saw all four of its core cast nominated four years in a row, but Will & Grace holds the lamentable distinction of going zero for thirty in its wins-to-nominations ratio despite all four of its stars winning at least one Emmy over the course of the show’s run. It may also be more difficult for supporting players Dan Levy and Annie Murphy to prevail since they’re competing directly with four dramatic actors in each of their categories. Another show that got all four categories mentioned, Glee, did see both of its supporting nominees win in 2010, but comedy victors are rare in those races. Only three other comedy series have ever been nominated in all five races that have existed since 1970: Just Shoot Me, Three’s Company, and All in the Family. The most any of them won was a single trophy in a given year. To put everything in perspective, the one and only series that has successfully pulled off a sweep was Angels in America, which had the padding of two additional supporting bids so that it could go five for seven.

Returning to this year, the competition is strong, and the major Emmy juggernaut didn’t have to face off against any of the other shows back in September. Schitt’s Creek is the only show that’s not a freshman series in contention for the top Globe comedy prize. The Great, a middling performer at the Emmys, has both its stars nominated, while the other three shows – The Flight Attendant, Ted Lasso, and Emily in Paris – are all relatively new and hot, with one signature lead performer from each in contention. What Schitt’s Creek does have going for it is that it’s hard to pick a clear favorite from among those, and it has more than enough support to overwhelm the vote tallies of the two other likeliest winners, The Flight Attendant and Ted Lasso. Its odds are nowhere near as certain as they were at the Emmys, but things still look pretty good for Schitt’s Creek.

Check out more of our Golden Globes coverage leading up to the big show this Sunday.