Betty Ginette
There’s still a fair way to go until the 99th edition of the Academy Awards rolls around in March 2027. But that hasn’t stopped the buzz surrounding plenty of titles that could be in the running for Best Picture.
Several titles released in 2026 are hoping to follow in the footsteps of One Battle After Another, with the frontrunner expected to be Christopher Nolan’s adaptation of The Odyssey. Currently, the July release has a 49% probability of claiming the prize according to the best prediction markets recommended by Action Network, although that percentage is subject to change.
These platforms have become an increasingly popular way to track the main contenders in a variety of categories, giving traders the opportunity to witness how probabilities change in real-time. This makes them especially useful when it comes to spotting potential dark horses that might challenge the supposed favorite.
How prediction markets work
To understand how prediction markets can be useful for spotting a potential Best Picture dark horse, you first need to have a basic understanding of how these platforms work. After finding the entertainment section, traders will be faced with several yes-or-no questions, each of which has a set resolution date.
The focus in this case is “Will film X win Best Picture?” Each film in contention will have a share price set between $0.01 and $0.99 for both ‘Yes’ and ‘No’. Traders can buy these contracts, which pay out exactly $1 per share if the outcome comes to pass and nothing if it is unsuccessful.
That means the share price of those contracts is also the implied probability of an event happening. However, traders can choose to sell those contracts before the resolution date as the price fluctuates over time.
Contract prices are determined by consumer behavior, namely supply and demand, as well as external events. This means that users can see what other traders believe to be the most likely outcome, unlike betting odds, where the prices set by sportsbooks tend to give the house an edge.
Why prediction markets can help traders spot dark horses
Because prediction markets update implied probabilities in real time, they are the perfect way to scout out potential dark horses in the build-up to major ceremonies like the Academy Awards, particularly after film festivals such as Cannes and Venice. These festivals can propel an unknown title into award contention, and fans have been able to see this with the emergence of La Bola Negra in 2026.
After its premiere earned a 16-minute standing ovation and the Best Director award at Cannes, the film was picked up by Netflix, which planned to propel it into Best Picture contention. That news saw its probability of winning the award rise to 9% on prediction markets, making it one to watch moving forward.
However, just as important as the real-time odds is the momentum a film has heading into award season. Prediction markets allow traders to see how implied probability changes over time, so if a movie is trending in the right direction, it becomes a clear contender.
In La Bola Negra’s case, this momentum is apparent. Traders and analysts will often use fall film festivals like Telluride as gauges for potential nominees, but so will prediction market traders. And, after Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi’s picture won the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, its probability skyrocketed to 29.5%.
For those who kept one eye on the film after Cannes, seeing it go from a dark horse to a bona fide Best Picture contender has been rewarding. With more festivals coming up in October, many traders will be paying attention to other outsiders that might make a similar jump.
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