Joey Magidson
Folks, it’s July! We’ve officially entered the second half of the year, which is the half where the Oscar-centric films tend to reside. Not entirely, of course, as you’ll see below, but largely. So, as we’re at this point, it felt like the right time to not just update my Academy Award predictions, but to consider the first half contenders, as well as the second half deluge to come.
Today, I’m both looking back and looking forward a bit. While the vast majority of our eventual Oscar nominees will come from flicks released in July to December, there’s always a few from the first half of the year that break through. In fact, one of our major titles that the Academy will eventually be considering is from early on this year. Which one? Well, let’s get into that now…
From the first half of 2026, the big awards hopeful is, of course, Project Hail Mary, from Phil Lord and Christopher Miller. Back at the time of my rave review in March (here), I speculated on Oscar attention for this one, and didn’t even consider Sandra Hüller in Best Supporting Actress, where she’ll certainly contend. This is what I said:
I know it’s early and a bit ridiculous to talk about awards, but Project Hail Mary is good enough to warrant the conversation. Keep in mind, Sinners came out in mid April last year, so while it’s not a great comparison, genre fare, when done this well, does get noticed months later by the Academy. This flick deserves attention in Best Picture, Best Actor for Gosling, Best Adapted Screenplay for Goddard, Best Cinematography for Fraser, Best Original Score for Pemberton, and Best Visual Effects. If Oscar voters are anywhere near as enthusiastic about this one as I am, this could extend to Best Director for Lord and Miller, as well as various other technical categories. A lot would have to go right, but I believe in this one’s ability to connect with audiences and voters alike, even with a March release date.
The other two contenders I’ll throw out, aside from animated fare like Hoppers and Toy Story 5, are Steven Spielberg‘s Disclosure Day and Olivia Wilde’s The Invite. The two animated efforts from Pixar should both compete for slots in the Best Animated Feature lineup, and potentially fight it out for the win. As for Disclosure Day and The Invite, both will benefit from targeted campaigns, but certainly have avenues for citations. The former could be a tech player, as well as push Emily Blunt in Best Actress, while the latter, aside from its cast, has a shot in Best Adapted Screenplay (plus, if a Best Picture nomination is in the cards, Wilde will be a part of the Best Director conversation, without a doubt). Especially for The Invite, as more people see it this month, look for additional buzz to build.
Then, there’s one-two horror punch of Backrooms and Obsession. Both feel like they have uphill battles for major recognition, but the former could be in play for Best Production Design attention, while the latter would love to see Inde Navarrette contend for a Best Actress citation. Will either happen? Time will tell, but the competition will have a fair amount to say about that, especially once the fall/winter releases are more clearly established.
Now, we’re on to the second half of the year. The first big contender will of course be Christopher Nolan‘s The Odyssey. I’ll be seeing it in just over a week, so we’re close to knowing what kind of a contender it is, but for now, this is one of our major across the board juggernauts, assuming the quality is there. It feels like the most likely film to end up with double digit nominations when all is said and done. If so, Nolan will once again be in contention for several of the top prizes, and while there’s no guarantee, I’m inclined to think that it’s probably going to happen.
This summer also features the young Anthony Bourdain film Tony, which could be a player if all turns out well. Plus, that movie could potentially be boosted by director Matt Johnson also having some real goodwill from earlier on in the year with Nirvanna the Band the Show the Movie. Call this one a hunch, and I’m seeing it in just a few days, so I’ll know if I’m right or not, but this could be one of the surprises of the summer. If so, it could easily stay in the conversation throughout the rest of 2026.
From there, it’s on to fall festival season, where a number of contenders will show their wares. Aaron Sorkin‘s The Social Reckoning certainly looms as a major X factor, as do many others. We’ll cover those soon enough, but the recent marketing for the “companion piece” to The Social Network has clearly hit a nerve. Even if not everyone is down with the promotional material so far, it’s clearly being positioned as a potential player by Sony. So, until proven otherwise, bet against it at your own risk. The other fall/winter release that will have a definite festival presence and is already gearing up with material is Alejandro González Iñárritu‘s Digger, starring Tom Cruise. If this one is even half as good as people hope, Cruise could be a clear frontrunner in Best Actor. That remains to be seen, but is a potential huge narrative for the season to come…
Remember folks, it’s still pretty early on in the game, all things considered. My last predictions article (found here) still has some similarities to this newer one, but that’s the nature of the beast right now. That being said, there is some movement happening, as a few early contenders have made a potential impact. Cannes initially helped a bit with some small changes, mainly in terms of boosting up Fjord, but I’m still remaining pretty conservative overall. Remember, I’m always trying to tell a story with my nominees. That certainly can change, in terms of being conservative, but it won’t be for a bit, since nothing concrete, Oscar-wise, usually happens in the early summer. Once we hit the fall, however? Then, all bets are off.
As always, you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions here at Awards Radar. We shall see, but this list is sure to change once again when I give it another update, likely in a month or so. Until then, the usual suspects from the initial ranking still loom fairly large, give or take the aforementioned new Cannes contenders and first half highlights. Here’s to more contenders emerging in the months to come…
Stay tuned for an update to these Oscar predictions as the summer rolls on!
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