Where Do the Major Races Stand After SAG?

It’s only been a few hours since the Screen Actors Guild Awards have wrapped, so the dust has barely settled. Still, it feels like we sort of know the score now. Of the categories that SAG has a say with, two are very much wrapped up. One feels likely to go a certain way, though not without some debate. Then, there’s two that feel like we really do have a race to consider. I’ll be publishing my final Oscar predictions on Friday morning, in advance of the Academy Awards on Sunday evening. Today, however, I want to set the stage for that, using SAG.

Keep in mind, this is just one precursor. You can’t consider any one precursor, even a Guild, in a bubble. So, SAG is an aspect of what my final predictions will be. I’ll talk more about this with Myles on the next episode of the Awards Radar Podcast, dropping on Thursday, but just remember that. We now have all the information, it’s just a matter of looking at it in the right way, mixed in with a little gut instinct.

First up, it’s fair to say that the Supporting categories are done and dusted. Best Supporting Actor will go to Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain and Best Supporting Actress will go to Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez. They have not missed once all season long, so SAG was simply the icing on the cake. Oscar night will be a coronation for Culkin and Saldaña. So, congrats to them both, but we don’t need to think too much more about those races.

Obviously, SAG doesn’t have much to say about the Screenplay categories, but the Best Picture frontrunners in Anora (Best Original Screenplay) and Conclave (Best Adapted Screenplay) feel very safe. In Original Screenplay, there are competitors with a shot at an upset in A Real Pain and The Substance, while in Adapted Screenplay, A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys could pull a shocker. Still, these feel very cut and dried, in favor of Sean Baker and Peter Straughan, respectively.

Similarly, Best Director isn’t applicable, though Baker seems to have raced out ahead. Brady Corbet and The Brutalist are not out of it by any stretch, but Baker and Anora have history, as well as statistics, on their side. This is another category, like the Screenplay ones, as well as below the line categories, that I’ll be tackling on Friday in my final predictions article.

On to the big ones. First, there’s Best Actress. This was one of the two races that all eyes were on, as Mikey Madison had just shocked at BAFTA. The Anora star had been the early favorite during critics groups at the end of the year, but Critics Choice and Golden Globe had gone to Demi Moore for The Substance. Prior to BAFTA, she seemed like the easy favorite. Then, it became, more or less, a dead heat. Now, having Moore win here does appear to put her over the top. Madison could ride an Anora win in Best Picture to an Oscar, but the safe money, at this point, is on Moore. Following SAG here feels like the way to go, as it felt all week like the tiebreaker.

Conversely, Best Actor wasn’t seeming like a particularly close race until last night. The notable precursors had all gone to Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. Then, just as it was about to be the final nail in the coffin, Timothée Chalamet surprises by winning. The star of A Complete Unknown is making his case a bit late in the game, and if SAG is going to be wrong about one of its acting categories, this feels like the one, but watch out. Chalamet is making this a race.

Finally, Best Picture. The Ensemble prize at SAG went to, in an upset, yet an understandable one, Conclave. Wicked had many of the aspects that SAG tends to go for, while Anora had frontrunner status in its favor. Now, Conclave has firmly established itself as the alternative to Anora. It boasts BAFTA and SAG as its pelts, while Baker’s flick puts forth CCA, DGA, PGA, and the Spirit Awards. Narrowing it down to BAFTA and SAG vs DGA and PGA, the latter is what history tends to favor. Plus, Conclave not having Edward Berger in Director would mean, if it wins, that it would follow a path only really followed by Argo, for example. Am I willing to back its late breaking momentum? You’ll see soon!

We only have a few days before Oscar chimes in. I’ll be deciding where I stand on these races, as well as the others, before Friday. You’ll hear where I likely am falling on Thursday with the podcast (obviously recorded earlier than that), with my official picks dropping on Friday. Sit tight for those, prepare your own, and get ready for this wild awards season to wrap up on Sunday night with the Academy Awards…

Stay tuned to see how the SAG winners fare at the Academy Awards on Sunday night!