Joey Magidson
Earlier this week, the Academy released a slate of ten categories in which we now have an Oscar shortlist to work off of. Those shortlists can be seen here, while Myles and I discussed them at length during the newest episode of the Awards Radar Podcast here. Today, I want to talk a little bit about what these shortlists do and don’t mean, since it’s easy to either give them too much weight or dismiss them entirely. In truth, to do either is folly, especially in the prognostication game.
The films that had the best showing with the shortlist reveal were, unsurprisingly, Emilia Pérez and Wicked. Anything less for those two would have been troubling. Dune: Part Two and Gladiator II both did well, too, with the former needing it to keep pace with other Best Picture contenders, while the latter needed it to stay afloat. Alien: Romulus also has a surprising showing, which could bode well for a technical category nomination or two when all is said and done. Then, there were in between situations, like with Conclave, which showed up in several spots, but not quite as many as potentially expected. A big deal? Probably not. Worth making a note of? Of course.
As for movies that didn’t show up, there are two types of situations. One is a situation where nothing was expected, so there’s no Oscar impact. The other, however, is a situation where these snubs really do signal a likely shutout on the horizon. In the first boat are films like Anora, A Real Pain, and September 5. Anything for them in these categories would have suggested an extra degree of support that would have, frankly, been shocking. In the other boat, we have Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga and Saturday Night, which both got crippled. They might be DOA, sadly.
Did any categories lose frontrunners? No. Did this help to clarify a few fields? Sure. The status quo more or less remains, though it’s becoming more and more clear the titles that are really in contention for awards love. It won’t be until the guilds chime in that we fully know the likeliest of outcomes. For now? We’re getting set to end the year with less question marks than previously in the season, so that’s worth taking note of…
My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, now that the precursor season has begun in earnest and the Oscar shortlist changes have been made. This is the time where actual changes of note start to happen, even though no individual precursor can make that big a difference. The cumulative nature of it, however, has an impact, so stay tuned as the picture gets clearer and clearer. As the year gets set to end, we know so much more than we did even just a few weeks ago…
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions, as well as a slate of initial Golden Globe predictions. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the precursors get set very soon to switch to a focus on the guilds. So, sit tight for much more as the season continues on in full force…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!
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