Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: We’ve Reached July and the Awards Season is Still a Complete Mystery

It may not feel like it, but we’ve entered the second half of the year already. It’s after the fourth of July now (I hope everyone was safe and had fun). It’s also over a month since I updated my Oscar predictions, with the last change happening after the conclusion of the Cannes Film Festival. So, it’s high time to tinker with these Academy Award picks. The thing is, when I went to do so, I really had almost no new information to work with. That got me thinking about how wild it is that we’re done with the first half of 2024 and have no even inkling of what the season is going to be like. Literally anything could happen.

Most years, we have a couple of big players already. We don’t necessarily know who and what are winning Oscars, but one or two frontrunners have usually emerged. Especially these days, when an early year release date isn’t a sign of awards unfriendliness, March is not a kiss of death. It’s not November, per say, but quality does travel. So, in a more normal year, my predictions would be sprinkled not just with films we’ve seen, but with ones we have a good feeling that the Academy will gravitate towards.

This year, however, is just one big X factor. The strikes last year obviously held up productions, which has had a trickle down effect. Will next year be a massive haul of Oscar fare? Maybe, but we’re currently worried about this upcoming Academy Award lineup, not the next one. And folks, things could turn around, but right now, pickings seem slim and it’s impossible to know how the Academy will vote, even more so than usual this summer.

The first half gave us no surefire contender, give or take Dune: Part Two. That’s probably not an above the line winner, unless you think Denis Villeneuve is scoring in Best Director. Below the line, it’s likely to do well, as could Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. The contenders for acting, however, seem likely to be dominated by late year releases, as could Best Picture. At the same time, who knows? The key is, we have no clue what’s going on, here in July, and that’s unusual.

What we’re looking for is the fall festival lineups to showcase not just the contenders we’re guessing about, but to surprise us with some new players. That likely will happen, to some degree, but the longer that we don’t have them, the more you have to take first half titles like Challengers and Hit Man seriously. Luca Guadagnino‘s sexy sports drama would normally seem too cool for school, especially with his own more prestige-feeling Queer coming this year as well, but without a ton of competition, it has a puncher’s chance. The same goes for Richard Linklater‘s lark, which could wind up as more than just a Glen Powell star vehicle. Then, there’s outside the box possibilities like Kinds of Kindness, though I suspect Yorgos Lanthimos‘ insane latest film is mostly an acting contender, either in Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor, for Jesse Plemons. Then again, who knows?

As you’ll see, I’ve bumped Sean Baker‘s Anora to the top spot. Does that mean it’s going to win Best Picture? Probably not. However, it has the Palme d’Or on its mantle, so there’s something quantifiable there that almost every other hopeful does not currently have. For example, Steve McQueen‘s Blitz was my previous number one, but a somewhat low-key festival debut, alongside a plot reveal that makes it sound more like a Belfast or Empire of Light than a war epic, has me knocking it down a peg. Does it mean much? Not at all. Is it something to keep an eye on in July? Sure.

Remember, it’s still very early, even as I fret about the time. My last predictions article (found here) may still look similar to this new one, but that’s the nature of the beast right now. I’m remaining very conservative, though still trying to tell a story with my nominees. That certainly can change, in terms of being conservative, but it won’t be for a bit, since nothing concrete, Oscar-wise, usually happens in the midst of the summer. The fall is where it’ll be at for us, predictions-wise.

As always, you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions here at Awards Radar. We shall see, but this list is sure to change once again when I give it another update, likely in a month or so. Until then, the usual suspects from the initial ranking still loom fairly large, give or take the aforementioned Cannes contenders…

Stay tuned for an update to these Oscar predictions as the summer carries on!