Oscars: Predicting the 2023 Best International Feature Shortlist

With various critics groups already announcing their picks for the best non-English language films of the year, Anatomy of a Fall has emerged as the obvious consensus choice. But in a surprising plot twist in the unfolding narrative of the Oscar race for Best International Feature, this captivating courtroom drama was snubbed in favor of Tran Anh Hung‘s The Taste of Things as France’s submission. The competition for the 15 slots on the upcoming shortlist therefore remains wide open, with 93 films including numerous festival darlings, standout documentaries and a typically strong European contingent. As we await that fateful December 21st announcement, here’s our take on where the race currently stands. Be sure the click the links to check out our coverage of these films.

THE FRONTRUNNERS

While history has proved that anything can happen over the course of the awards season, several frontrunners have already emerged for Best International Feature. The clear favorite is currently the United Kingdom submission The Zone of Interest, an bleak drama about a Nazi family blithely living beside Auschwitz that thrives on Jonathan Glazer‘s exacting directing style. The film has copped several major notices on the circuit so far and is also positioning for Oscar nominations in Best Picture and Best Director. In a move reminiscent of their selection of the eventually nominated Les Miserables over Portrait of a Lady on Fire, France’s surprise choice The Taste of Things is also proving to be a worthy alternative. Directed by Trần Anh Hùng and starring Juliette Binoche, this delectable culinary drama is now a Critics Choice Award nominee. Meanwhile, Netflix will have high hopes for a repeat win through Spain’s Society of the Snow, a survival thriller based on the true story of the 1972 Andes flight crash from J.A. Bayona. Rounding out the top contenders, most pundits will expect to see Wim Wenders‘ Perfect Days (Japan), Aki Kaurismäki‘s Fallen Leaves (Finland), Nikolaj Arcel‘s The Promised Land (Denmark) and İlker Çatak‘s The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany) on Thursday’s shortlist.

FESTIVAL DARLINGS

Although the frontrunners have hogged the limelight on the awards circuit so far, there are several films with proven track records of audience appeal and critical acclaim following their festival debuts. After premiering at Cannes in 2022, Hlynur Pálmason‘s stunning historical drama Godland is one such threat for a shortlist spot. Depicting a priest’s ardous 19th century mission to establish a new church in a remote part of Iceland, this well-reviewed film was recently nominated at the Independent Spirit Awards. Another title to watch is Noora Niasari‘s Shayda, a deeply moving drama about an Iranian woman (brilliantly portrayed by Zar Amir Ebrahimi) who seeks to liberate herself and her daughter from an abusive home in Australia. This Sony Pictures Classics release won the Audience Award at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival. Latin America also boasts formidable submissions in the form of Cannes duo The Delinquents (Argentina) and The Settlers (Chile), as well as Mexico’s pick Tótem, which was nominated for Gotham and Spirit awards. Furthermore, other award winners at major festivals include Io Capitano (Italy), Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World (Romania), Mami Wata (Nigeria) and About Dry Grasses, the latest from Turkey’s highly regarded auteur Nuri Bilge Ceylan.

DOCUMENTARY DOUBLE DIPPERS

Since the impressive hattrick of Honeyland, Collective and Flee as dual nominees for Best International Feature and Best Documentary Feature, non-fiction films have become an increasingly viable option for countries’ official submissions. This year, there are a number of prime contenders that could emulate the trend. The most obvious of them are a pair of innovative Arabic documentaries exploring female perspectives. Representing Tunisia and Morocco respectively, Kaouther Ben Hania‘s Four Daughters and Asmae El Moudir‘s The Mother of All Lies made auspicious debuts at Cannes, where they shared the festival’s top documentary prize. Notably, Kaouther Ben Hania’s directed 2020’s Oscar nominated The Man Who Sold His Skin and Asmae El Moudir also picked up the Un Certain Best Director award at Cannes. Meanwhile, Ukraine seeks its first ever Oscar nomination through Mstyslav Chernov‘s topical 20 Days in Mariupol, a striking depiction of the Russia-Ukraine war. Other docs garnering considerable attention include Smoke Sauna Sisterhood (Estonia), Pictures of Ghosts (Brazil) and Bye Bye Tiberias (Palestine).

DARK HORSES

There’s always at least one shortlisted film that seemingly comes out of nowhere and there are several candidates for that annual surprise. Indeed, Bhutan earned a first ever nomination for Pawo Choyning Dorji‘s Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom and hopes to repeat that crowd pleasing magic with his follow-up The Monk and the Gun. Also, you can never count out an award winner at Cannes, which bodes well for Mohamed Kordofani‘s Goodbye Julia (Somalia) and Baloji‘s Omen (Belgium). South Korean films have lately become Academy faves in this category following the success of Burning, Decision to Leave and of course, Parasite. So it shouldn’t be a shock if the thought-provoking spectacle of disaster epic Concrete Utopia connects with voters. Finally, Sweden films are perennially in the mix, and they have a strong submission in Milad Alami‘s Opponent, featuring a sterling performance from Payman Maadi of A Separation fame.

Shortlist Predictions:

1. Zone of Interest
2. The Taste of Things
3. Society of the Snow
4. Perfect Days
5. The Teachers’ Lounge
6. Promised Land
7. Fallen Leaves
8. Godland
9. Totem
10. lo Capitano
11. Shayda
12. Four Daughters
13. 20 Days in Mariupol
14. The Monk and the Gun
15. Opponent