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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Santa Has New Predix Under the Tree on Christmas Eve!


First of all, I hope you all are enjoying your Christmas Eve. I’ll have more to say tomorrow about the actual holiday, but it’s obviously coming during again uncertain times. So, both as a distraction, as well as a reward, I’ve got new Oscar predictions to share with you all. The Academy Awards are like a gift in and of themselves, so consider this present just a teaser for the big one. The closer and closer we get, the more important these early picks become, especially since they won’t be early anymore. Truly, it’s a special time. So, deck the halls and strap in for the Oscars!

Earlier in the week, the Academy released the shortlists for ten of their categories (here). Some films took a bit of a hit, while a few saw their fortunes increase. Interestingly, a title I’ll discuss below had a pretty solid showing, while more traditional Oscar fare, like Nightmare Alley, for example, underperformed. Now, is this a sign of what’s to come or just the technical categories potentially diversifying? The answer could be either, but it does open up some interesting possibilities, as I’ll discuss next.

The Oscar season is prime for something crazy to happen. So, why don’t we indulge in that for a moment? Two oddball ideas I’d like to present are Best Picture candidacies for No Time to Die and Spider-Man: No Way Home. These movies wouldn’t normally sniff the lineup, but as legitimate blockbusters, maybe they have a special dispensation this year? The former could end up doing very well at BAFTA, which would be a boost, while the latter is a certified cultural event. Capturing the zeitgeist is always a good thing, and as Hollywood looks to boast of their continued theatrical future/strength, that could be on the mind of voters. It isn’t likely, per se, but they took a big leap up in my rankings this week.


Right now, there are perceived frontrunners, but a sense that much is in flux. That’s where the aforementioned long shot candidacies of No Time to Die and Spider-Man: No Way Home have a puncher’s chance. Along with Drive My Car, they hope to be party crashers in bigger and more categories than initially expected. For now, it does still seem to be a race to the finish between Belfast and The Power of the Dog, but it’s a race that seems to be tightening by the day.

Going forward, all eyes will be on the Guilds.The Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, the Screen Actors Guild, and the Writers Guild will again write the final words on the season. If they strongly back either Belfast or The Power of the Dog (or hell, even CODA, Dune, or West Side Story), that’ll be all she wrote. However, if they split, which seems like it’ll likely be the case, then we’ll have some fun on our hands…

Focus Features

Below is a link to my predictions, not just for the Oscars, too, since Golden Globe picks are here. The Globes obviously mean very little now, but why not, right? Along with the Critics Choice Association announcing (plus the Independent Spirit awards), we’ve seen the precursors really reach a boiling point. The Guilds are next, and boy will they set the stage for something big. Past updates (the most recent one is here) have primed the pump, but we’re about to dive even deeper.

Here now are my most up to date Oscar predictions for this very intriguing season. More to come, obviously, but this is how I foresee the Academy Award nominations going in the new year. Check them out and enjoy…

Let us know what you think of my predictions and stay tuned for another update very soon!


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Written by Joey Magidson

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