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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Where Do We Stand Post-Nominations?

“Mank” (2020) Cinematography by Erik Messerschmidt

Monday morning seems both moments ago and also a bit of a distant memory, doesn’t it? Well, time has lost all meaning over the past year and change, so it’s not surprising. However, we still are at a point where we can sit and ponder the start of Phase Two. Awards Season may not have some of the buzz that it has in past years, but when Mank led the Oscar nominations without seeming like a film with much chance of taking Best Picture, it did remind us of the possibilities here. Are we in line for Nomadland to dominate? Could Promising Young Woman sneak up at the last moment? What about the seemingly fading The Trial of the Chicago 7? Is Minari in play? All of these things are buzzing about in prognosticators’ minds. The question is, what do Academy members think?

My initial thoughts on the nominations were posted back on Monday, but not much has changed. I’ve stewed over it all a bit, but what I said then still stands. Here is a sample from that piece:

From here, we turn our attention to winners. The Academy Award nominations tell us some things about who and what might win, but the Guild results will say more. I’ll leave analysis fro my Predictions piece later on in the week, but at this moment, only Nomadland and Promising Young Woman showed up in all the categories that signal a likely winner. Now, the former has way better odds than the latter, but Emerald Fennell‘s movie is making a play. So, just keep that in mind…

So, is this a Nomadland vs Promising Young Woman battle? It may well be. Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 will pin their hopes to SAG (and PGA, to a lesser extent), though Promising Young Woman needs PGA as much as either. Then again, voters may be in an unusual mood this year. Could that lead to an upset or a sweep? Both are potential outcomes, which I’ll be tackling in the next few weeks. Stay tuned there!

Searchlight Pictures

As a reminder, predictions have been updated yet again, and not just for the Oscar, either. Yes, in addition to the Academy Awards, everything else has been given a once over. We have Film Independent Spirit Award winner predictions updated for the first time in a bit, with the same going for SAG, along with picks for the Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards. So, be sure to look at those DGA and PGA predictions, as well. Plus, Writers Guild winner predictions are here as well with the winners soon to be announced! Have at it, folks, and as always, we’re not far out from another update…

For easy reference, here are my current Oscar picks, post nominations:

Carey Mulligan (left) stars as “Cassandra” and Christopher Mintz-Plasse (right) stars as “Neil“ in director Emerald Fennell’s PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, a Focus Features release. Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features

Best Picture – Nomadland (Second Spot: Promising Young Woman)

Best Director – Chloe Zhao for Nomadland (Second Spot: David Fincher for Mank)

Best Actor – Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Second Spot: Anthony Hopkins for The Father)

Best Actress – Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman (Second Spot: Frances McDormand for Nomadland)

Best Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah (Second Spot: Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Best Supporting Actress – Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Second Spot: Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy)

Best Original Screenplay – Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman (Second Spot: Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Best Adapted Screenplay – Chloe Zhao for Nomadland (Second Spot: Kemp Powers for One Night in Miami…)

Best Animated Feature – Soul (Second Spot: Wolfwalkers)

Best Production Design – Mank (Second Spot: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Best Cinematography – Nomadland (Second Spot: Mank)

Best Costume Design – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Second Spot: Emma.)

Best Film Editing – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Second Spot: Sound of Metal)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Second Spot: Mank)

Best Sound – Sound of Metal (Second Spot: News of the World)

Best Visual Effects – Tenet (Second Spot: The Midnight Sky)

Best Original Score – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Soul (Second Spot: James Newton Howard for News of the World)

Best Original Song – Diane Warren – lo Si (Seen) from The Life Ahead (Second Spot: Leslie Odom Jr. and Sam Ashworth – Speak Now from One Night in Miami…)

Best Documentary Feature – Crip Camp (Second Spot: Time)

Best International Feature – Another Round (Second Spot: Collective)

Best Animated Short Film – If Anything Happens I Love You (Second Spot: Burrow)

Best Live Action Short Film – Two Distant Strangers (Second Spot: The Present)

Best Documentary Short Subject – A Love Song for Latasha (Second Spot: Do Not Split)

Netflix

Stay tuned for another update next week!

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Written by Joey Magidson

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