Updated Oscar Predictions: Contenders Dropping Like Flies in the Fall

Is it just me or does it seem like rarely a day goes by without some film getting delayed? Right now, the list of movies hoping to contend for Academy Award nominations is getting smaller, not larger, and that makes for an intriguing situation. We’ve seen the likes of Dune, No Time to Die, and West Side Story push off to 2021, with other potential Oscar flicks like Stillwater primed to do the same. In fact, aside from potentially The Card Counter, there really isn’t another player we’ll see enter the fray this year. That will make voters more likely to consider early year releases like Da 5 Bloods, First Cow, The Invisible Man, The King of Staten Island, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, and The Way Back more so than they might otherwise have. Whether it’s snubs turning into nominations or nominations possibly contending for wins, the field is truly wide open. When have we ever been able to say that in October? Sure, it’s really still around July, awards season timeline-wise, but still. We’re in uncharted territory, in so many ways.

Last week, I mentioned how streamers had an early advantage, with studios like Netflix able to release a host of contenders. They’re about to drop Over the Moon and The Trial of the Chicago 7 on us, as well as debuting a first look at Mank (plus, they have a potential late season X factor in The Midnight Sky). At the same time, the aforementioned Dune has called it quits on 2020. The technical categories are suffering, big time, especially with West Side Story having previously bailed on the year. Without too many titles left to hit, we sort of know what’s on the table. For example, Focus is primed to actually release Promising Young Woman this winter, but pundits already chimed in about that one back at the Sundance Film Festival. There isn’t likely to be many (if any) surprises, and that sets up voters to potentially look back in a way they don’t usually. Maybe they won’t, but it’s at least worth considering…

As always, you can go here for the Oscar predictions, but in case any of you want to see the Cliff Notes, my current predicted winners in each category are as follows:

Best Picture – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Director – David Fincher for Mank

Best Actor – Delroy Lindo for Da 5 Bloods

Best Actress – Frances McDormand for Nomadland

Best Supporting Actor – Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Supporting Actress – Saoirse Ronan for Ammonite

Best Original Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay – Kemp Powers for One Night in Miami…

Best Animated Feature – Soul

Best Production Design – Mank

Best Cinematography – Mank

Best Costume Design – Mank

Best Film Editing – The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Mank

Best Sound – Tenet

Best Visual Effects – Tenet

Best Original Score – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Mank

Best Original Song – Taylor Swift (Only the Young) from Miss Americans

Best Documentary Feature – Crip Camp

Best International Feature – Ema

Stay tuned for updated predictions as soon as next week!