How Often Does a TIFF People’s Choice Award Translate to Oscar Success?

Yesterday, the Toronto International Film Festival came to an end. As always, one of the highlights of the end of the festival is the awarding of the TIFF People’s Choice Award prize. This year, the winner was La bola negra, with I Play Rocky and Being Heumann the first and second runners up, respectively. The win has generated some talk of how the Netflix movie may not just be the prime alternative to The Odyssey, but perhaps even the one to beat for Best Picture? That obviously remains to be seen, but today, I wanted to look at how often the winner of this prize has their success translated to Oscar? The answer might surprise you…

We can start by looking at the winners and runners up since the year 2000, when the top three finishers started being revealed:

2000

Winner – Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

First Runner Up – The Dish

Second Runner Up – Innocence

Third Runner Up – Billy Elliot

2001

Winner – Amélie

First Runner Up – Maya

Second Runner Up – Monsoon Wedding

2002

Winner – Whale Rider

First Runner Up – Bowling for Columbine

Second Runner Up – Bend It Like Beckham

2003

Winner – Zatōichi

First Runner Up – Go Further

Second Runner Up – The Corporation

2004

Winner – Hotel Rwanda

First Runner Up – N/A

Second Runner Up – N/A

2005

Winner – Tsotsi

First Runner Up – Live and Become

Second Runner Up – Dreamer

Third Runner Up – Brokeback Mountain

Fourth Runner Up – Mother of Mine

2006

Winner – Bella

First Runner Up – My Best Friend

Second Runner Up – Dixie Chicks: Shut Up and Sing

2007

Winner – Eastern Promises

First Runner Up – Juno

Second Runner Up – Body of War

2008

Winner – Slumdog Millionare

First Runner Up – More Than a Game

Second Runner Up – The Stoning of Soraya M

2009

Winner – Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

First Runner Up – Mao’s Last Dancer

Second Runner Up – Micmacs

2010

Winner – The King’s Speech

First Runner Up – The First Grader

2011

Winner – Where Do We Go Now?

First Runner Up – Starbuck

Second Runner Up – A Separation

2012

Winner – Silver Linings Playbook

First Runner Up – Argo

Second Runner Up – Zaytoun

2013

Winner – 12 Years a Slave

First Runner Up – Philomena

Second Runner Up – Prisoners

2014

Winner – The Imitation Game

First Runner Up – Learning to Drive

Second Runner Up – St. Vincent

2015

Winner – Room

First Runner Up – Angry Indian Goddesses

Second Runner Up – Spotlight

2016

Winner – La La Land

First Runner Up – Lion

Second Runner Up – Queen of Katwe

2017

Winner – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

First Runner Up – I, Tonya

Second Runner Up – Call Me By Your Name

2018

Winner – Green Book

First Runner Up – If Beale Street Could Talk

Second Runner Up – Roma

2019

Winner – Jojo Rabbit

First Runner Up – Marriage Story

Second Runner Up – Parasite

2020

Winner – Nomadland

First Runner Up – One Night in Miami…

Second Runner Up – Beans

2021

Winner – Belfast

First Runner Up – Scarborough

Second Runner Up – The Power of the Dog

2022

Winner – The Fabelmans

First Runner Up – Women Talking

Second Runner Up – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

2023

Winner – American Fiction

First Runner Up – The Holdovers

Second Runner Up – The Boy and the Heron

2024

Winner – The Life of Chuck

First Runner Up – Emilia Pérez

Second Runner Up – Anora

2025

Winner – Hamnet

First Runner Up – Frankenstein

Second Runner Up – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

2026

Winner – La bola negra

First Runner Up – I Play Rocky

Second Runner Up – Being Heumann

As you can see, winning, or even placing with the TIFF People’s Choice Award is certainly an Oscar boon. In fact, since 2000, 33 Best Picture nominees have shown up here, with nine of them actually winning the Academy Award. Moreover, plenty of nominees/winners elsewhere, especially in both Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay, are littered across this list. At the same time, when TIFF goes in a different direction, they rarely cite awards season hopefuls that come up a bit short. For every The Life of Chuck, which seemed like it had a chance to be a player, there’s at least one Bella or Where Do We Go Now?. Nomadland in 2020 is the last winner of this award to go on to win Best Picture, though if you want to give that year an asterisk given the state of the COVID festival landscape, you can look to 2018 and Green Book. Before that? 12 Years a Slave in 2012. So, while the winner can certainly get a boost, anointing them the frontrunner isn’t necessarily the obvious answer.

So, what am I saying? In short, La bola negra just got some major ammunition in its quest to win the big one, though I wouldn’t necessarily put it above The Odyssey yet. At the same time, I Play Rocky did well to solidify its hopes of being a populist nominee in Best Picture. One might say the same about Being Heumann as well, though that one does have the possibilitty of falling through the cracks. Overall? All three films benefitted from this. So, good for them, but if you’re planning on doing any massive predictions updates in regards to these movies, I’d advise to wait a bit. There’s a lot more to come, not just for these flicks, but for the season on the whole…

Stay tuned to see how La bola negra, I Play Rocky, and Being Heumann fare this Oscar season!