What Does Math Have to Say About the Impending Oscars?

I always enjoy when I come across this article every awards season, whether it’s before the Oscar nominations or actual ceremony. After all, I’ve not only long said that there’s a degree of science (or math) to predicting the Oscars, but I also find analytics fascinating in sports. So, I have a healthy respect and even admiration for math/statistics when it comes to predicting outcomes. With the Academy about to hand out their prizes on Sunday, I wanted to point out one way that some are going with their predictions, as I finalize my picks, which you’ll be able to see on Friday morning in all their (hopeful) glory. They’re actually all ready to go, as you’ll hear shortly on the Podcast, and can see on Predictions tab on the site, but the actual article goes up tomorrow.

As you’ll see below, someone like Ben Zauzmer uses math to figure out likely outcomes. Who is he, in case you haven’t read this piece in the past? Well, not only is he a longtime predictor of the Oscars using a mathematical model, he’s also a baseball analyst, doing the same in sports. In fact, he’s an Assistant General Manager for the New York Mets (specifically, Vice President & Assistant General Manager, Baseball Analytics), which many of you know is my favorite team. So, he’s not only been able to use this to oftentimes do quite well with the Academy Awards, he’s currently using it to help my squad win a World Series in the near future. They came pretty damn close two seasons ago, after all. So, there’s something to this whole numbers thing.

In this article at The Hollywood Reporter, you can read his explanations and see how he predicts Sunday’s ceremony to go down. It’s a really interesting piece, well worth checking out. Compare and contrast it with my current predictions here if you want. Once the winners are known, we’ll see how both of us did.

As always, it’s important to note that you have to take into account how much to weigh certain precursors. For example, you may see Delroy Lindo low on his chart, but it’s the type of performance that has caught on very late in the game. Math says that Sean Penn will win Best Supporting Actor. Voters? Well, that’s where you occasionally have to factor in gut feelings.

Personally, I always give math its due, but I also pay attention to what I’m hearing from voters, as well as the other trends in the air at the time. That’s how you see a late riser like Lindo in Supporting Actor potentially crashing the party. Statistics can tell you plenty of the story, but there’s an emotional quotient that can’t be calculated. When both combine, however, you almost always end up with a nominee.

All in all, this is great information to have, but just Zauzmer freely admits, upsets to statistical frontrunners do happen. So, consider the info, use it as much or as little as you want, but don’t look at it as the gospel. It’s just a tool. Same as in baseball, it tends to work similarly with the Oscars, ultimately.

Stay tuned to see how the Oscars turn out on Sunday evening!