With Precursor Season Over, How Did the Major Oscar Contenders Do?

Last night, the 2026 precursor season came to an end. Come Sunday evening, the Academy Awards will be held and tell us who/what will be taking home Oscars. So, this week is about trying to finalize those picks. You’ll see my final predictions on Friday morning, with a preview come Thursday with the new episode of the Awards Radar Podcast. Today, I want to just set things up by looking at the major Oscar contenders and how they did with the precursors.

I’ll say it again at the end of this article, but just keep this in mind…just winning the most precursors does not assure you of an Academy Award. There are specific precursor wins that favor an Oscar victory, which you can peruse below, but it’s just one factor. The Critics Groups don’t make for an Oscar winner, but they do help move a contender towards becoming a nominee. After that? The Guilds and televised awards factor in more, though it’s all a part of the awards season stew…

When it comes to Best Picture, One Battle After Another and Sinners were far and away the champions. Hamnet had that surprise Golden Globe win in Drama, but most other precursors went for the other two. The same was the case in Best Director, with Paul Thomas Anderson taking a plurality, and most of the remainder going to Ryan Coogler. Anderson obviously dominated in Best Adapted Screenplay, while Coogler did the same in Best Original Screenplay. So, this really does set up a two horse race in Picture, though more on that throughout the week.

Take a look at how the Best Picture and Best Director field went for One Battle After Another and Sinners:

BEST PICTURE
One Battle After Another (40) – AACTA, AFCA, AFCC, AFI, BAFTA, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GAFCA, GG, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, KCFCC, LAFCA, LFCC, LVFCS, MNFCA, NBR, NJFCC, NSFC, NYFCC, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, PGA, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, TFCA, VFCC
Sinners (29) – AAFCA, ACTOR, AFI, AWFJ, BFCC, BRA, BSFC, CACF, CIC, DFCC, DFCS, GALECA, HCA, HFCS, IFJA, LEJA, MCFCA, MMCG, NAACP, NCFCA, NDFS, NTFCA, OAFFC, OFTA, PFCA, PRCA, SDFCS, UKFCA, WAFCA

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (36) – AACTA, AFCA, AFCC, BAFTA, BOFCA, CCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFWFCA, DGA, GAFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HFCS, IFJA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LFCC, LVFCS, MNFCA, NBR, NDFS, NJFCC, NSFC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SFBAFCC, SFCS, StLFCA, TFCA, UKFCA
Ryan Coogler (26) – AAFCA, AWFJ, BFCC, BRA, BSFC, CACF, CIC, DFCC, DFCS, GALECA, HCA, HFCS, LEJA, MCFCA, MMCG, NAACP, NCFCA, NTFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, PFCA, PRCA, SDFCS, SEFCA, VFCC, WAFCA

As for the four Acting races, you can see an obvious bent towards Jessie Buckley, who by far did the best in Best Actress for her performance in Hamnet. Next in line? Perhaps surprisingly, it’s Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Best Actor ended up with Marty Supreme‘s Timothée Chalamet doing the best, though he had barely more than Sinners‘ Michael B. Jordan. The latter could be about to upset the former this weekend, and if it happens, how close the precursors were could end up as a clue. Best Supporting Actress had Amy Madigan doing easily the best for Weapons, though the Guild/televised section of the precursors boosted Sinners‘ Wunmi Mosaku and One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor. Then, there’s Best Supporting Actor, where it feels like anything is possible. One Battle After Another was the most cited in the category, but for Benicio del Toro, as opposed to Sean Penn, who has just zoomed out potentially into the lead the past week or two. He only has one more citation than Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård, so maybe they’re essentially tied? Delroy Lindo, on the other hand, was snubbed more than he was cited this season, but the final push for Sinners may well get him over the finish line for a shock victory.

Take a look at the four Acting races amongst the main Oscar contenders:

BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (38) – ACTOR, AFCC, AWFJ, BAFTA, CACF, CCA, CIC, DFCS, GAFCA, GG, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, IFCA, LFCC, MMCG, MNFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NJFCC, NTFCA, NYFCO, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCC, PFCS, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFCS, StLFCA, UFCA, UKFCA, VFCC, WAFCA, WFCC,
Rose Byrne (25) – AACTA, AFCA, BERLIN, BOFCA, BSFC, CFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GALECA, GG, GWNYFCA, KCFCC, LAFCA, LEJA, MCC, MCFCA, NBR, NYFCC, OAFFC, PCA, PFCA, SDFCS, SFBAFCC, SPIRIT, TFCA

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet (24) – AACTA, AFCA, CACF, CCA, CFCA, DFCS, GAFCA, GG, GWNYFCA, HCA, HFCS, IFJA, LFCC, LVFCS, MCC, MNFCA, NDFS, NJFCC, NTFCA, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PRCA, VFCC
Michael B. Jordan (22) – AAFCA, ACTOR, AWFJ, BFCC, BRA, CIC, DFCC, HCA, HFCS, KCFCC, MCFCA, MMCG, NAACP, NCFCA, OAFFC, OFCS, PFCCm SDFCS, SEFCA, UFCA, UKFCA, WAFCA
Leonardo DiCaprio (8) – AFCC, DFWFCA, IFTA, NBR, OFCC, PFCS, SFCS, StLFCA
Ethan Hawke (8) – BSFC, COFCA, LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCO, SFBAFCC, TFCA, WFCC
Wagner Moura (6) – BOFCA, CANNES, GG, ICS, LEJA, NYFCC

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Madigan (38) – AACTA, ACTOR, AFCA, AFCC, BOFCA, BSFC, CACF, CCA, CIC, DFCS, GAFCA, GALECA, HCA, HFCS, HFCS, KCFCC, LFCC, LVFCS, MCFCA, MNFCA, NCFCA, NDFS, NJFCC, NTFCA, NYFCC, OFCC, OFCS, OFTA, PCA, PCC, PFCA, PRCA, SDFCS, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, StLFCA, VFCC, UFCA
Wunmi Mosaku (12) – AAFCA, AWFJ, BAFTA, BRA, GOTHAM, GWNYFCA, MMCG, NAACP, OAFFC, PCA, SFCS, UKFCA
Teyana Taylor (11) – BFCC, CFCA, DFWFCA, FFCC, GG, LAFCA, LEJA, NSFC, PFCC, PFCS, WAFCA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro (22) – AFCA, AFCC, BOFCA, CFCA, COFCA, DFCS, GAFCA, GWNYFCA, IFJA, LEJA, NBR, NSFC, NYFCC, OFCC, OFCS, PCC, PFCC, PRCA, SEFCA, SFBAFCC, TFCA, WAFCA
Sean Penn (14) – ACTOR, BAFTA, CACF, CIC, FFCC, KCFCC, LFCC, MCFCA, NDFS, PFCS, SFCS, StLFCA, UKFCA, VFCC
Stellan Skarsgård (13) – AWFJ, BSFC, DFWFCA, EFA, GG, HCA, HFCS, LAFCA, LVFCS, MNFCA, NJFCC, OFTA, SDFCS
Jacob Elordi (7) – AACTA, CCA, HFCS, NCFCA, NYFCO, OAFFC, OFTA
Delroy Lindo (6) – AARP, BFCC, NAACP, NTFCA, PCA, UFCA

Again, don’t be dogmatic about this. Especially this year, there’s a sense that statistics are not going to be the be all-end all for predictions. Gut feelings will be a factor, sure, especially in figuring out how high Sinners can fly, but late breaking momentum could really make more of a difference than usual. We’ll figure it out together, throughout the week, all leading up to Sunday’s Academy Award ceremony…

Stay tuned to see if these precursor wins translate to Oscar wins on Sunday!