What Might BAFTA Tell Us This Weekend About the Oscar Race?

On Sunday, the 79th British Academy Film Awards are being held. Better known as BAFTA, the British Academy represents the biggest indication each year of potentially how the Oscar voters across the pond are thinking. BAFTA is not the be all, end all, of Phase Two, but it’s one of the more influential precursors out there. So, it’s clearly worth discussing, and that’s exactly what we’re doing today.

There are some categories that could actually have an impact on the Oscar race, which is my main focus here. The Academy Award won’t necessarily go to the BAFTA winners, but in a case or two, it may, at least once hindsight comes into play next month, may prove to have been essentially the tiebreaker.

First up, a silly one, in that Best Animated Film doesn’t include Kpop Demon Hunters. So, whichever of Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, or Zootopia 2 win, you can make the case that they’re number two in the category at the Oscars. Does this matter? No, not really. Is it fun to consider, all the same? Most definitely.

With the Acting categories, you have some races to watch. There’s Timothée Chalamet up against Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, and Michael B. Jordan in Leading Actor. If Chalamet is getting upended, especially by Hawke, that march has to begin here. In Leading Actress, it’s the five Oscar nominees, plus Chase Infiniti, with Jessie Buckley almost a sure thing to win. Anyone else would be a shock. With Supporting Actress, Amy Madigan was snubbed, so this could either be a boost to Teyana Taylor or throw the category into some chaos, letting SAG sort it out. Keep an eye out there, regardless.

Supporting Actor is a big one to watch and worth its own paragraph. If Benicio del Toro or Sean Penn get on the board with a win here, their candidacies are still alive and well. If Jacob Elordi wins, is he the new frontrunner? If Stellan Skarsgård does, is he locked in for a win? What about if Paul Mescal wins? Does that benefit a non BAFTA nominee in Delroy Lindo at the Oscars? This win, combined with SAG, will help to form the final leg of this race.

Best Director has our five Oscar nominees going at it, alongside additional nominee Yorgos Lanthimos for Bugonia. Will it be Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another or Ryan Coogler for Sinners. Anderson has the DGA prize and seems like a safe bet to win the Academy Award, but a stumble here would be notable.

Finally, Best Film features the five movies logically seen as the top five at the Oscars. We’ll see presumed top two One Battle After Another and Sinners duking it out, with Hamnet hoping for the home field advantage, while Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value hope for the upset. It feels like One Battle After Another or Sinners, with Hamnet trying to play spoiler, much like it’ll be at the Academy Awards.

Stay tuned to see who and what take home BAFTAs on Sunday!