Joey Magidson
Well now, this has been quite the week to be covering the Oscars, huh? Not only is it precursor season, but the Academy revealed two very notable bits of information. One was expected, in the reveal of the shortlists in a dozen categories, while the other was not in the slightest, as the Oscars are going to YouTube. More on both below, including how they might impact the Academy Award currently. Throw in an update to my predictions and we have a nice bit to talk about here as we head towards the end of December…
First up, we should get into the Oscar shortlists. You can see the twelve shortlists here, as well as listen here to Myles and I discuss it on the latest episode of the podcast. The notable inclusion of Best Cinematography was fun, while having the Best Casting shortlist available was our first hint at the movies (or maybe Casting Directors) that voters will be looking towards. It’s always not a tell-all, but these reveals are a definite piece of the puzzle and worth paying some attention to.
Which films did the best? Well, Sinners and Wicked: For Good had the best showings, while Sirāt had the most surprising one, strength wise. What does that mean? I’m not ready to say that Sirāt is a real threat in Best Picture, but this could be the start of momentum that pushes it past other International contenders towards a citation in the top category. I do think this was confirmation that Sinners is a big deal, while proof to not fully discount Wicked: For Good. Then again, either of them scoring more inclusions than One Battle After Another doesn’t mean that we have a new frontrunner. It’s all just information, and below the line information, to boot. So, while former bigger contenders like A House of Dynamite and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere only scored one shortlist inclusion, while a caught in the middle player like Jay Kelly probably wishes it did better, nothing has changed too much, overall.
The other big Academy Award news was that the telecast will be moving from ABC to YouTube after the 100th ceremony. The 98th Oscars are the current ones, so television has two more Oscar nights, then it’s a streaming world for at least four years. The Academy Awards may well end up a relic by going to YouTube, though I do think this has a chance to reinvigorate the ceremony and truly make it for film lovers. Time will tell, but I don’t think voters will think much about it this year, so it’s status quo, at least one or two more times. Then, all bets could be off.
Right now, things are going to be a little bit quiet as the year wraps up. With 2025 almost over, One Battle After Another feels firmly like the flick to beat, though Sinners is nipping at its heels in some regards. Throw in Hamnet and those are the clear top three, and likely the ones with realistic chances of winning Best Picture. At least, that’s what it looks like going into 2026.
Watch out for more precursors in the new year, including the Golden Globes, as well as the Guilds. When the latter starts getting involved, that’s when you should really take notes. For now, we know the titles and artists that are in play. It’s just a matter of correctly arranging them. January events will help in that regard, as is always the case. For now, my predictions will show you where I think things currently stand.
My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see even more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, now that the precursor season has begun in earnest, as well as the shortlists. This is the final update of 2025, as the next one comes in very early 2026. Consider that, both in terms of how far we’ve come, but also with how much is still to come this season…
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus potentially a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions soon (I promise, I’ll get to them soon). My initial set of post nomination Golden Globe predictions have been made too, though they will be updated soon as well. It’s exciting times as the calendar gets set to turn from 2025 to 2026. So, sit tight for much more as the season continues on in full force…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions in the new year!
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