Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: It’s Late in the Summer and the Fall Film Festivals Are Looming

Welcome to August, ladies and gentlemen. We’re now late in the summer and I’m less than a month away from attending the Telluride Film Festival. Yes, it’s now a matter of weeks before Telluride, with the Venice Film Festival kicking off a few days before. Then, it’s right on to the Toronto International Film Festival, with the New York Film Festival sort of putting a bow on that month or so of movie madness. With that no longer so far off in the distance, today is a moment to put a marker down, alongside updated Academy Award predictions, of course.

The summer hasn’t really given us any contenders this year, at least above the line. Below the line, things like The Fantastic Four: First Steps and Superman should find places to contend. In the major categories, it still feels like it’s up to The Life of Chuck to break through, but that remains to be seen. So, that means that the upcoming film festivals are going to have a huge impact on the awards season to come.

Next up is the fall film festivals. We know the Venice lineup (Netflix heavy, but with many of the expected contenders), as well as some of what will be at TIFF, plus the big three at NYFF (After the Hunt, Father Mother Sister Brother, and Is This Thing On?). That leaves the NYFF full lineup, but mainly the Telluride one to consider. I’ll write more about that at the end of August, before I attend, but TIFF and Venice designations have given us some clues. One world premiere that I think is happening in Telluride? Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. Call it a hunch, but I think that flick is kicking off its awards run there.

Festival season will really establish the bonafides of many of the presumed major Oscar contenders this year. After the Hunt, The Ballad of a Small Player, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, A House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, The Smashing Machine, and more have been confirmed for festivals, where they’ll either sink of swim. Some will get crossed off of the Oscar list quickly. Others will become immediate players that the Academy will salivate over. That happens every year, though remember, it’s just one small piece of the puzzle.

Until then, we wait. Depending on how many fall festival favorites emerge, the candidacies of things like Sentimental Value (which got raved about at the Cannes Film Festival and will hit other fests) or Sinners will fluctuate. The more spots seem to remain open, the better things will look for an early season release like Sinners. As for Sentimental Value, it’ll need to remind folks just how much they liked it at Cannes, or risk being forgotten about. Another flick like that which has a chance to really expand its candidacy? Nouvelle Vague. Watch out for that one.

Remember, it’s still quite early, really. My last predictions article (found here and about where we stood as the summer settled in) may still look pretty similar to this new one, but that’s the nature of the now late summer beast. As previously mentioned, Cannes did help a little bit with some small changes, but I’m still remaining very conservative, especially with the fall festivals less than a month away. Plus, I’m still trying to tell a story with my nominees. That certainly can change, in terms of being conservative, but it won’t be for a bit, since nothing concrete, Oscar-wise, usually happens in the summer. We’re just playing a waiting game here in August, as September will be where we learn a ton.

As always, you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions here at Awards Radar. We shall see, but this list is sure to change in a bigger way when I give it another update, likely in a month or so, right before I head to Telluride and TIFF. Until then, the usual suspects from the first few rankings still loom fairly large, give or take the aforementioned Cannes contenders and the like. Sit tight for the fall…

Stay tuned for an update to these Oscar predictions once the fall film festival season begins!