Joey Magidson
I always enjoy when I come across this article every awards season. After all, I’ve not only long said that there’s a degree of science (or math) to predicting the Oscar nominations, but I also find analytics fascinating in sports. So, I have a healthy respect and even admiration for math/statistics when it comes to predicting outcomes. With the Academy about to announce on Thursday, I wanted to point out one way that some are going with their predictions, as I finalize my picks, which you’ll be able to see on Tuesday.
As you’ll see below, someone like Ben Zauzmer uses math to figure out likely outcomes. Who is he? Well, not only is he a longtime predictor of the Oscars using a mathematical model, he’s also a baseball analyst, doing the same in sports. In fact, he’s an Assistant General Manager for the New York Mets (specifically, Vice President & Assistant General Manager, Baseball Analytics), which many of you know is my favorite team. So, he’s not only been able to use this to oftentimes do quite well with the Academy Awards, he’s currently using it to help my squad win a World Series in the near future. They came pretty damn close this past season, after all.
In this article at The Hollywood Reporter, you can read his explanations and see how he predicts Thursday’s nominations to go down. It’s a really interesting piece, and I’ve including a few of the charts below, but it’s well worth checking out. Compare and contrast it with my current predictions here if you want. Once the nominees are known, we’ll see how both of us did.
It’s important to note that you have to take into account how much to weigh certain precursors. For example, you may see A Real Pain low on his chart, but it’s the type of film that was always unlikely to receive a SAG nomination in Best Ensemble, which would have buoyed it for Best Picture here. Could the movie miss? Sure. Is it likelier than this suggests? Also yes.
Personally, I give math its due, but I also pay attention to what I’m hearing from voters, as well as the other trends in the air at the time. That’s how you see a late riser like Jamie Lee Curtis in Best Supporting Actress potentially crashing the party. Statistics can tell you plenty of the story, but there’s an emotional quotient that can’t be calculated. When both combine, however, you almost always end up with a nominee.
All in all, this is great information to have, but just Zauzmer freely admits, upsets to statistical frontrunners do happen. So, consider the info, use it as much or as little as you want, but don’t look at it as the gospel. It’s just a tool. Same as in baseball, it tends to work similarly with the Oscar nominations, as well as the Academy Awards, ultimately.
Stay tuned to see how the Oscar nominations turn out on Thursday morning!
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