Joey Magidson
Folks, we’re almost at the point where cards are on the table. There’s almost nothing left to be seen, the precursors have begun a tiny bit, and it’s November. So, we should know more about the awards season, shouldn’t we? It really does appear like the season is in a continual state of stasis here in 2024, right? When it changes, it’s going to change quickly, but for now, anything remains possible. That being said, a new contender just debuted that does threaten to upend the race. The film? Wicked. Today, tied into some updated Academy Award predictions, I’ll be talking a bit about the movie and its Oscar possibilities, which seem far greater than just a few weeks ago…
Wicked is obviously a high profile Broadway adaptation, with Jon M. Chu directing this prequel take on The Wizard of Oz. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande star, with the supporting cast including Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum.
For those unaware, this is the plot synopsis:
Misunderstood because of her green skin, a young woman named Elphaba forges an unlikely but profound friendship with Glinda, a student with an unflinching desire for popularity. Following an encounter with the Wizard of Oz, their relationship soon reaches a crossroad as their lives begin to take very different paths.
The film screened for the first time very recently, with almost exclusively raves coming out of these early screenings. Now, take those with a grain of salt, especially these days. I went into Gladiator II a few weeks ago after the first screening a few days prior had suggested an all-time classic. Of course, that was clear hyperbole, but I wound up seeing a solid flick that did not in any way deserve that kind of hype (while still being worthy of praise). So, I’ll admit to having my guard up a bit here, especially considering how some are gaga for the source material.
If all goes well, the movie could be a major threat to actually win Best Picture. Along with that, Best Director (for Chu), Best Actress (for Erivo), Best Supporting Actress (for Grande), Best Adapted Screenplay, and a whole host of technical categories might be in play. How do I think it will do? Well, I’ll know more on Tuesday, when I see Wicked for myself. On the one hand, musicals have struggled of late with the Academy. On the other hand, Oscar really embraces one when it’s done well. If this manages to be as good as the rumors suggest, watch out for it to be a big deal with voters this holiday season…
After Wicked, it will be just down to A Complete Unknown. That may still be a bit of a ways away, so Wicked does have some runway to utilize. Right now, it feels like Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez are the Best Picture frontrunners, but another top tier contender could be on our hands. The field certainly has space for more big players, as aside from Dune: Part Two, there’s nothing that feels super safe to crack the lineup.
My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, post festival season. Next up for me, it’s taking in these last two that I still need to see. Then, it’ll be precursor season before you know it. That’s where the real movement will take place, so stay tuned there…
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals have now concluded and the first precursors have begun. So, sit tight for much more as the season approaches in full force…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!
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