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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Closing Out 2022 with New Picks and Thoughts on the Best Picture Race

Can you believe that 2022 is basically over with? There’s literally only one day left in the year, so whether you believe it or not, 2023 is pretty much upon us. So, I’ve held off with any major Oscar prediction updates of late, minus when the shortlists came out, but today sure feels like the day to get into it, right? Good, since that’s just what I did. Not only are there new Academy award picks to pour over, I’ve got one of the major categories on my mind…

This year has been a hard one to pin down, awards season wise. On the one hand, an early perceived frontrunner in The Fabelmans has pretty much stayed the course, while an early year organic success in Everything Everywhere All At Once has managed to exceed all but the most wide-eyed expectations. Throw in Top Gun: Maverick crashing the party and the awards players have been a lot unlike what we normally see.

So far, the precursors have confirmed the independent faves like The Banshees of Inisherin and Tár, in addition to the aforementioned Everything Everywhere All At Once, are here to stay in the race. That being said, the critics groups don’t have the impact that the guilds do, so until they chime in, something like The Fabelmans still seems to be in an excellent position.

Today, I’m thinking about the Best Picture race. Right now, it appears like seven films are sitting pretty for nominations. They are, in alphabetical order: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick. There’s a whole glut of hopefuls seeking to get the last three slots, but the above seven movies are as closed to locked for nominations as there are this year.

Beyond those seemingly locked contenders, the actual prize appears to be between The Banshees of Inisherin, Everywhere All At Once, and The Fabelmans. In my eyes, whichever of the trio gets the guild attention, that’s where the smart money resides. That’s to be decided next year, obviously, but as we exist 2022 and enter 2023, that’s the state of the race for Best Picture.

Prior predictions for the Academy Awards can be found right here, showcasing my thought process throughout the season. As a reminder, Golden Globe predictions are are here. Give those a look, but obviously take them with a big ole grain of salt, as per the usual with the Globes. They just simply don’t mean much, when you get right down to it.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, now that the fall festivals wrapped up and the winter precursor season very much upon us. So, sit tight for plenty more in 2023…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the awards season continues!


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Written by Joey Magidson

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