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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Will Voters Heed the Warning of ‘Don’t Look Up’ or Can a ‘Licorice Pizza’ Snack Satisfy?

Netflix
MGM

Last week, I checked back in on the status of some of the remaining unseen (or now, formerly unseen) Academy Award hopefuls. That was coming in the shadow of House of Gucci finally screening. Since then, we’ve now also laid eyes on several other big Oscar contenders. Just yesterday, I saw Don’t Look Up, with Licorice Pizza being the night before, as well as Being the Ricardos the previous evening. Did these screenings confirm some of my former predictions, or has the race been upended? Well, you’ll find out below, but it clearly marked a moment to at least give my picks a once over, which is what I did right before hitting publish. So, read on for the latest…

First up, we should talk about Don’t Look Up. Full reviews are still embargoed until next month, but this one is fresh in my mind. Though there were a notable detractor or two at my NYC screening, the vibe was mostly positive, with yours truly seeming to be the highest on it there. However, the LA screening that was help simultaneously seemed to be even higher, while also being more bullish on its Oscar prospects. Adam McKay‘s satire isn’t really an Academy Award type film, but a movie can become one if it’s loved. Should that be the case, Leonardo DiCaprio in Best Actor and Meryl Streep in Best Supporting Actress stand to benefit the most.

Netflix

Likewise to Don’t Look Up, reviews of Being the Ricardos are embargoed for a bit. At the same time, screenings have been coming quite frequently, with largely positive praise. Not everyone is raving, but it’s hard not to assume this one has improved its Academy Award positioning. Nicole Kidman seems in for a nomination, with Aaron Sorkin again about to compete heavily in Best Original Screenplay. If voters are as fond of it as pundits so far, a Best Picture nomination is in the cards. As for anything more, it just depends on how much the Academy likes it (which could bode well for J.K. Simmons in Best Supporting Actor). But, it’s a player, to be sure.

As for Licorice Pizza, the reception has more or less equaled the anticipatory fawning. Paul Thomas Anderson has been catnip to Oscar recently, at least in terms of nominations, and that should again be the case here. A win, however, may prove elusive. Anderson’s best chance is in Best Original Screenplay (it won’t win Best Picture or Best Director, even if PTA gets nominated). Bradley Cooper will be lucky to be nominated in Best Supporting Actor, while a citation for Alana Haim in Best Actress will be its reward. Look for several nods, but those wins? Perhaps not.

Amazon Studios

Prior updates herehereherehereherehereherehere, and here have set the stage for the season. As mentioned above, with not a lot left to see, the first part of the equation is soon to be complete. Then, it’ll be time to fully figure this thing out. So, get set folks, and sit tight!

You can once again see my Oscar predictions (remember when they were still Year in Advance ones?) here at Awards Radar. Take a gander and be sure to watch out for the next update, which is coming soon (probably not next week though, with Thanksgiving slowing things down for a bit). They’re going to continue coming in hot and heavy these days, especially now that festival season is now essentially done with. Enjoy!

Let us know what you think of my predictions and stay tuned for another update very soon!

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Written by Joey Magidson

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