Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Guilds Have Begun Right as the Golden Globes Are About to Have Their Say

In the blink of an eye, we’ve reached a real inflection point of the precursor season. Not only are we fully into 2026, phase one of the season has turned from exclusively critics groups to the guilds. That’s where some of the big awards season decisions are made, so it feels like the perfect moment to take stock of things. We’ve had guilds announce, multiple precursors held, and this weekend brings the Golden Globe Awards. So, an update to all of these predictions, as well as a state of the race feels well in order right now.

Last week, the Critics Choice Awards were held, and while they don’t offer Oscar crossover and held few surprises, they may be the place that begins the Jacob Elordi Best Supporting Actor train for his turn in Frankenstein. Other than that? They were further evidence that Paul Thomas Anderson‘s One Battle After Another is a force to be reckoned with, at least during the critics phase of precursor season.

Earlier this week, we had The Actor (formerly SAG) nominations, alongside the Directors Guild nominees being announced. The guilds are a bigger indicator of Academy Award potential, given the Oscar crossover, and they also went hard for One Battle After Another, though Ryan Coogler‘s Sinners also had excellent showings. The snubs of all international fare with each does limit how much stock you can put in them overall, as the Academy will not follow suit. Still, it’s one place where several contenders won’t be able to put a win on the board, so it’s a bit of a factor. As for DGA, they more or less went with the chalk picks, though a surprise or two easily could still be in store for the Best Director field.

Sunday, the Golden Globes go down. Again, there isn’t Oscar crossover, so temper expectations, but there are some interesting races to watch out for. I’d look at the Best Screenplay category to see how voters here choose between Anderson and Coogler, potentially, as well as how they sort out Supporting Actor. If Elordi also takes this one, he will truly be on a role, one that the other players might not be able to put a stop to.

Overall, I want to remind you all to not put too much stock in any one precursor announcement or award. It’s the sum total that lets you figure out the Academy Awards, not any individual body. So, while it’s exciting to constantly update your predictions after every voting body announces, it’s not wise to do. Yes, I’m telling you this right after all of my picks have been updated, but I let the past week settle before I really dove in. That’s always the smarter way to go about things, at least in my humble opinion.

Oscar wise, things are looking like a two horse field between One Battle After Another and Sinners for the top prize, with the former well in the lead. At the same time, the latter is probably likelier to lead the field, nomination wise, and that could lead to some upsets, or at least a closer race than perhaps expected. Director still feels like Anderson’s to lose, though I wouldn’t necessarily call PTA a stone cold lock yet. Best Actor is still sorting itself out and Supporting Actor is a jigsaw puzzle, while Best Actress still favors Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, alongside a potentially surprise Best Supporting Actress frontrunner in Weapons‘ Amy Madigan. Here in early to mid January, that’s where we currently stand.

My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see even more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, now that the precursor season has turned into the guild section of the year. This is the first update of 2026, so these are going to come far more often now, as we’re deep into the thick of it.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus potentially a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions soon (I promise, I’ll get to them soon). My final set of post nomination Golden Globe predictions have been made too, alongside first predictions for The Actors (here) and DGA (here). It’s exciting times as the calendar has turned from 2025 to 2026, with the guilds coming with full force. So, sit tight for much more as the season continues on, surprises and all…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!